Workpackages

Workpackage 5: Rescue process modelling

Objectives

Establish requirements and uncertainty bounds for models of mustering, abandonment and rescue operations. The requirements must specify the degree of realism of the foundering process required to be accounted for in prediction of vessels evacuability, the detail of representation of rescue operations, etc. The requirements must also put forward uncertainty bounds to be assigned to such methods.

Description of work

Task 5.1 Benchmark data on mustering/abandonment/rescue
(Responsible: BV, Participants: SSRC, BMT)

An exercise of data collection, compilation and synthesis will be undertaken in this task to put forward a benchmark set of information on the process of mustering, abandonment and rescue. Various full scale or mock-up scale tests have been performed in the past on various aspects of the evacuation or rescue process. Also, many real-life casualties have taken place in the past. The main objective of this task is to consolidate and document all these data for the purpose of benchtesting of predictions of the whole process of persons transfer from a ship in a distress to safe place (another ship or harbour). The main challenge to be addressed by this task is to ensure consistent description of the environmental-, ship-, life savings appliances- and rescue- conditions during the test or real casualty case.

Task 5.2 Test/develop mustering (M) model
(Responsible: BMT, Participants: SSRC, SaS, BV)

At least one comprehensive model will be put forward as an alternative for modelling of the mustering process. Detailed description of the method, input information and its sensitivity to the accuracy of input information will be developed. The emphasis will be put on the model's ability to represent the mustering process for an actual casualty case (e.g. wave action, heeling conditions and presence of floodwater). The validation will be performed on the basis of the information consolidated in Task 5.1 on the mustering. The range of the sensitivity studies parameters must allow for quantitative uncertainty quantification to be undertaken in Task 5.5.

Task 5.3 Test/develop abandonment (A) model
(Responsible: BV, Participants: SSRC, BMT, SaS)

At least one model will be put forward as an alternative for modelling of the abandoning process. Detailed description of the method, input information and its sensitivity to the accuracy of input information will be developed. The emphasis will be put on the model's ability to represent the abandonment process for an actual casualty case (e.g. wave action, heeling conditions and presence of floodwater). The validation will be performed on the basis of the information consolidated in Task 5.1 on the abandonment. The range of the sensitivity studies parameters must allow for quantitative uncertainty quantification to be undertaken in Task 5.5.

Task 5.4 Test/develop rescue (R) model
(Responsible: BV, Participants: SSRC, BMT, SaS)

At least one model will be put forward as an alternative for modelling of the rescue process. Detailed description of the method, input information and its sensitivity to the accuracy of input information will be developed. The emphasis will be put on the model's ability to represent the rescue process for an actual casualty case (e.g. wave action, poor visibility, inaccessibility of SAR facilities). The validation will be performed on the basis of the information consolidated in Task 5.1 on the rescue. The range of the sensitivity studies parameters must allow for quantitative uncertainty quantification to be undertaken in Task 5.5.

Task 5.5 Establish uncertainty bounds on M-A-R models
(Responsible: SSRC, Participants: BMT, SaS, BV, MCA)

As it has been proposed in Task 4.5, it is proposed that non-intrusive schemes based on ensemble methods, such as Markov Chain - or Differential Evolution - Monte Carlo, or Bayesian Inference be applied for quantification of uncertainty associated with prediction of the mustering-abandonment-rescue (M-A-R) process by tools put forward in Tasks 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4. The deviations of the predictions from the gathered information as well as the spread of the results between different approaches, if more than one tool will be applied, will be quantified and based on these deviations, bounds on the acceptable deviations will be proposed for common approval. A standard uncertainty test scheme will be devised for any method to be applied to document its predictive capability before use in decision support or design systems.

Deliverables

• D5.1 Report on the data collection on mustering/abandonment and rescue
• D5.2 Report on validation and sensitivity testing of methods for assessing effectiveness of mustering process
• D5.3 Report on validation and sensitivity testing of methods for assessing effectiveness of abandonment process
• D5.4 Report on validation and sensitivity testing of methods for assessing effectiveness of rescue process
• D5.5 Report on the method for assigning of uncertainty bounds for methods for M-A-R assessment